Step one: Understanding demand in your local area

Introduction

Drawing on existing data and information, the first step is to understand your local population, the current supply of homes, and current and future demand for housing with support for autistic adults and adults with a learning disability. 

It involves:  

• collecting and analysing local demographic, economic, health, social care and housing trends data  

• identifying local needs and preferences for housing with support for autistic adults and adults with a learning disability 

• carrying out demand projections for different types of housing.   

It is important that the information collected reflects the diversity of the local population, for example different ethnic groups, LGBTQ+ communities, people living with dementia and people with visual or hearing impairments. This information will help inform your housing strategy by helping potential investors, planners, providers and development partners, understand the local context, the current and projected demand for different types of housing that meet specific needs of autistic adults and adults with a learning disability, across different localities, and create a delivery plan. This information will also be relevant to the requirements of the Supported Housing (Regulatory Oversight) Act 2023.  

How to

You will need to: 

• Outline a demographic overview and socio-economic profile of the local population, focusing particularly on autistic adults and adults with a learning disability. For example, you should highlight age groups, ethnic groups, gender – particularly in relation to underrepresentation of woman, deprivation, health issues, care and support needs, care and support eligibility status, people who fund their own care and support, and unmet needs. 

• Highlight any relevant differences across different localities in the local area. Outline local projections about population growth and projected changes for each relevant demographic group. You can draw on resources such as PANSI, NHS Digital, Census data, ONS population projections, Public Health Profiles, local joint strategic needs assessments, dynamic support register, and ASCOF and SALT datasets, and/or the Housing LIN (Learning and Improvement Network) strategic housing modelling tools (see sources of information and resources below for a selection of useful contacts).  

• Local areas may have specific ways of collecting data on housing demand, consider involving relevant teams (from planners and housing strategy to public health and people with lived experience) to identify ways in which such data has been collected recently. 

• Identify the number of autistic adults and adults with a learning disability in the locality and their: living support arrangements, tenure types, the number of people in different types of accommodation settings (from mainstream housing or independent living to supported housing or residential care), the number of people that are able to afford and/or are eligible for different types of housing with care and support including under NHS Continuing Healthcare (CHC), section 117 aftercare (free aftercare for some people who are leaving hospital after having been detained under the Mental health Act), and Mental Health Act. Consider data on household size and composition, and any information on people living in unsuitable/low standard homes or any restrictions such as forensic restrictions which could limit the area in which individuals are allowed to live. It is important to highlight how this data differs across age groups, gender, ethnic groups, and any other demographic groups that you think will provide valuable insight. You can also highlight differences across different localities in the area.  

• Identify what is known nationally and locally about what autistic adults and adults with a learning disability value about housing, the factors that may contribute to people moving in later life and people’s views on different types of housing, including housing with care and support, and the accessibility or adaptability of the property. You can draw on existing consultations and research with local people and/or national publications, guidance and good practice.   

• Use current and projected populations, use projection tools and models to identify projected demand for different types of housing. This can be done by using internally developed bespoke models or other existing tools (see sources of information and resources below). 

• Consider the number of autistic young people and young people with a learning disability transitioning into adult services as well as hospital discharges. 

Partners to involve  

Partners for this step can both identify and agree the types of information that are needed and help identify relevant data that organisations collect but others may not be aware of. It is also important to involve partners with the necessary skills to conduct the analysis described above, whether these are local authority staff or commissioning organisations that specialise in demographic analysis.  

• Local authority service managers and commissioners across adult social care, housing, data and research.  

• Integrated Care Partnership, local Healthwatch, housing associations. 

• Representative groups, professional networks, charities and community groups, particularly organisations representing or working with people with learning disabilities and autistic people.    

Example: Cheshire and Merseyside  

Cheshire and Merseyside Transforming Care Partnership developed an assessment to understand the future need for supported housing over the period 2022/23 to 2032/33. This work was based on a quantitative analysis developed by Campbell Tickell and on qualitative information gathered with commissioners from all local authorities in the region with the objective to understand local trends and the nature of future need for supported housing and housing for people with learning disabilities and autistic people in their area. 

The quantitative analysis included data from all nine councils in the region and focused on identifying the projected demand for supported housing for each locality by 2032/33. The analysis focused on those individuals who are inpatients or at high risk of inpatient admission and/or those who are eligible for adult social care services, including: 

• Inpatients in hospital or specialist units 

• Those on the Dynamic Support Databases who are high risk 

• Residents in care homes 

• Young people who are transitioning to adult services 

• People living with a family carer. 

The analysis identified the need for 1,679 supported housing units across Cheshire and Merseyside over the period 2022/23 to 2032/33. This includes the projected population of people with a disability. The report details how projections could be influenced by the number of relets and other factors such as those people in NHS hospital settings who are NHS ‘Specialised Commissioning Patients’. 

The partnership explored how some of the demand could be met through Shared Lives and general accommodation, identifying the need for an extra 165 Shared Lives places and 380 general housing units for the period. 

Through the qualitative research, the partnership worked with commissioners to identify the local trends and the nature of the supported housing needs of people with a learning disability and autistic people. The research mapped current accommodation settings, including people living with family carers/informal carers, young people in transition to adult social care eligibility, people living in Shared Lives, residential care, nursing care, hospital settings, and shared supported housing. The research identified the needs for each of these groups to support a better understanding local trends according to each type of setting.  

The evidence from the quantitative and qualitative research were then combined to support the development of a gap analysis for the period and support the development of a regional housing strategy. More details can be found in Cheshire and Merseyside Housing Strategy: People with Learning Disabilities and/or Autism (ADASS Cheshire and Merseyside).